Hogan Lovells 2024 Election Impact and Congressional Outlook Report
Implementing legislation to enact the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is expected to be introduced as early as the week of 16 December following extensive discussions between leaders of the U.S. Congress and the U.S. Administration. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and House Ways & Means Chairman Richard Neal (D-MA) announced a breakthrough in negotiations regarding certain provisions of the USMCA that was signed 30 November 2018. The two Democratic Congressional leaders cited changes to enforcement, labor, environment, and pharmaceutical chapters in the agreement in announcing the decision to bring implementing legislation to enact USMCA into U.S. law.
According to a fact sheet released by the House Ways & Means Committee, changes to the USMCA since it was signed in November 2018 include:
These changes to the USMCA were discussed and agreed to in trilateral meetings between U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, and Mexican Under Secretary for North America Jesús Seade in Mexico on Tuesday, 10 December 2019.
Following this breakthrough, the Trump Administration will prepare implementing legislation that will be submitted to Congress, where final text will be reviewed, marked-up and voted on by the House and Senate before (assuming bicameral approval) final signature by President Trump. While the House Ways & Means and Senate Finance Committees normally conduct mock markups and hold public hearings, it is unclear if these steps will be followed in the interests of time if the goal is to secure House and Senate votes by the end of the year.
If approved, the USMCA would replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) that went into effect in 1994 and which superseded the 1988 Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement. The USMCA has already been approved by Mexico’s Congress of the Union (20 June 2019), while the Canadian Parliament’s efforts to ratify USMCA (or CUSMA as the agreement is referred to in Canada) were delayed by recent federal elections.
While Republicans overwhelmingly support approving and implementing USMCA, passage of the USMCA has been held up by some Democratic lawmakers over concerns about labor enforcement and the environment. With the announcement of these changes to the USMCA to address Democratic concerns and statements in support of the USMCA by U.S. labor groups, it appears that USMCA approval and implementation by the U.S. Congress is imminent. Following the U.S. implementing legislation, USTR will conduct a detailed review of Mexican and Canadian implementation before the President issues a Presidential Proclamation declaring that the agreement has entered into force. While this process can take anywhere from six months to several years, it could be shorter here, since there has been intensive scrutiny already of Mexico’s implementation of its new labor reform law.
Authored by Warren Maruyama, Juan Francisco Torres Landa, Jonathan Stoel, Deen Kaplan, Robert Kyle, Ivan Zapien, Chandri Navarro, Craig Lewis, Jorge Yáñez, Jared Wessel, and Patrick De Laperouse.